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Outlook> 2003 > August Slowing
economy worries bosses AUSTRALIA is tending to follow the UK with a
feeling of uncertainty about the global economy, domestic
housing construction and the drought, all of which are
casting a shadow over Australia's economic future,
according to Australian business leaders.
The latest D&B Business Expectations Survey shows
business owners and senior executives have performed an
about-face from last month's bullish predictions,
expressing caution in the face of economic uncertainty.
Importantly, executives have begun to cut back on
investment plans, adopting a "wait and see"
approach before committing to more spending.
The D&B survey of more than 1200 executives and
business operators found 22 per cent of respondents
expected an increase in capital expenditure in the
September quarter, but 8 per cent now expected a cut to
capital spending - 2 per cent more than the previous
survey.
"Continuing global economic uncertainty and the
future of the housing market are the two significant
blips on the radar screen for most Australian companies
right now," D&B Australian and New Zealand chief
executive Christine Christian said.
"Our current survey suggests that executives are
reacting to these issues and have started applying the
brakes on capital investment plans."
The results of an Australian Chamber of Commerce and
Industry survey also show that Australian business
investment will slow over the next six months.
An index measuring the proportion of companies expecting
to invest more during the next six months fell from 51.9
last year to 47.7 per cent.
"The survey adds to pressure for the Reserve Bank to
give consideration over coming months to an interest rate
cut," ACCI chief Peter Hendy said.
Against this, the Reserve Bank left interest rates at
their previous level last month, instead of the 0.25 per
cent cut widely expected.
But sales and profit expectations remain strong, with 51
per cent of respondents forecasting sales increases for
the quarter and 47 per cent predicting their company's
profits will rise.
D&B economic consultant Duncan Ironmonger said the
survey indicated a stable outlook for inflation.
"Selling price expectations remain unchanged and
actual price rises in the March quarter were also
unchanged, which is good news on the inflation
front," Dr Ironmonger said.
"An important indication of the easing inflation
expectations is that retailers continue to have the
lowest selling price expectations of all."
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