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Overseas intake faces downturn UNIVERSITIES have perhaps a two-year breathing space before they feel the fiscal squeeze as international students take their business elsewhere."After that [breathing space], you can really see the crunch coming," said Centre for Independent Studies research fellow Andrew Norton. It was "perfectly feasible" that a university would go broke. Federal Opposition education spokeswoman Jenny Macklin said the overseas student market, on which universities had become "dangerously dependent", had "ground to a halt". In 2005 commencements rose just 1 per cent after two years of 7 per cent growth. Source countries are creating more places for students from the region, Australia's dollar has been strong and there are more competitive First World rivals. A common strategy for the Australian sector is to diversify: new products in old markets (Curtin University of Technology's health sciences for Singapore), new markets (eastern Europe for Central Queensland University (CQU), Latin America for several universities) and new offshore ventures (Singapore and Malaysia have become offshore markets, according to Wollongong University). Other strategies are closer monitoring of markets, tweaking of academic programs and cautious budgeting. "You can't have 14-15 per cent growth rates forever," said John Ingleson, deputy vice chancellor, international, at the University of New South Wales. "It was always a fool's paradise." The University of Technology, Sydney (UTS), has refined a system to predict future demand so that UTS does not take on unneeded new staff ahead of a downturn, according to deputy vice chancellor Peter Booth. Professor Booth said the alarming 1 per cent growth figure highlighted by Mrs Macklin was not news to him: "I knew about that 12 months ago," he said. Mr Norton said universities worried about income could try to push up the average yield per student. But he said the Australian Vice-Chancellors Committee seemed to be "doing bugger all" to lobby Canberra for freedom to charge higher fees to domestic students, the bigger and therefore more rewarding cohort. "Everyone would like to rely on an undergraduate [overseas] market but I think that is diminishing," said Mark Skinner, of Campus Group Holdings, which manages campuses for CQU. To cater to the emerging postgraduate market, the sector would have to spend more and create new facilities geared to adult, often married students keen to study late and through holidays. "They're not looking for a 'university experience'," Skinner said. The postgraduate shift would make recruiters busier and put pressure on marketing. "There's more competition at the postgraduate level, because the market is more sophisticated," he said. Professor Ingleson at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) said it was vital to have a long-term commitment to the region, rather than seeing overseas students just as "cash flow". "When the growth in student numbers is slowing down you've got to resist the temptation to lower standards," he said. "If you take in weak students then you make your university less attractive to the top students in the region." UNSW especially was seeking more research students from the region -14 PhD candidates from Vietnam were starting this year - with an eye to future rewards. "The danger ahead is that, as a sector, we're very dependent on two major markets, China and India," said Tony Adams, pro-vice chancellor, international at Macquarie University. For Macquarie, India was a small, rapidly growing market, but one especially vulnerable to any sudden changes in Australian immigration policy, Professor Adams said. Prime Minister John Howard and university leaders were recently in India forging education links. Monash University announced a new science and engineering partnership with the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. |
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