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Population to head for 5m

Fewer children - older people

NEW ZEALAND'S population is projected to increase by almost one million people between 2004 and 2051. This will see the five million population mark surpassed in 2041.

The population is projected to reach 5.05 million in 2051, 24 per cent higher than the current population of 4.06 million.

This projection assumes that New Zealand women will average 1.85 children from 2016, down from 2.01 in 2004.

Life expectancy at birth will continue to improve, by about six years by 2051, to 83.5 years for males and 87.0 years for females; and there will be a net migration gain of 10,000 people a year, according to Statistics New Zealand.

But population growth will slow steadily in the future, mainly because of a large increase in the number of deaths.

The population is expected to grow by an average of 0.8 per cent a year between 2004 and 2011. Between 2041 and 2051, population growth is projected to average just 0.1 per cent a year.

Population ageing is likely to continue. In 1971, half of New Zealand's population was aged 26 years and over. By 2004, the median age had increased to 35 years, and by 2051 it is projected to reach 46 years.

The projections suggest that higher migration levels are unlikely to significantly slow the ageing process.

With a net migration gain of 15,000 a year, the median age will be 45 years in 2051. With net migration of 5,000 a year, the median age will increase to 47 years in 2051.

The number of children (0-14 years) is projected to decrease from 890,000 in 2004 to 820,000 in 2021. Children will make up 16 per cent of the population in 2051, compared with 22 per cent in 2004.

The number of people aged 65 years and over is expected to surpass the number of children by 2022. In 2051, 26 per cent of the population will be aged 65 years and over, compared with 12 per cent in 2004.

Within the 65 years and over age group, there will be about 320,000 people aged 85 years and over in 2051, six times the 2004 total of 54,000.

The working-age population (those aged 15-64 years) is projected to increase from 2.69 million in 2004 to 2.98 million in 2024, before declining gradually to 2.93 million in 2051.

Most of the increase will be in the older half of this age group (40-64 years) as the large number of people born after World War II move through these ages.

In 1991, the population aged 15-39 years was 56 per cent larger than the population aged 40-64 years. In 2011, the 40-64 age group is expected to overtake the 15-39 age group in size.