Home > Our Publications > New Zealand Outlook > 2004 > December

Auckland region boom to continue

Families stay largest group

AUCKLAND region and the North Island are predicted to continue to dominate New Zealand's population and also the growth in the number of new households over the next 17 years.

Against this, the bottom of the South Island, Invercargill and South Island are expected to lose people in the long term.

There will be more houses built throughout the country but one-person households will lead the growth.

This will be due mainly to an increase in the number of older people.

Overseas students will also boost the number of households.

The number of households in New Zealand is projected to increase by 377,000 (26 per cent) between 2001 and 2021, from 1.44 million to 1.82 million, according to the latest figures from Statistics New Zealand.

Eighty-three per cent of the growth in households is projected to occur in the North Island. Household numbers in the North Island are projected to increase by 314,000 (29 per cent), from 1.07 million in 2001 to 1.38 million by 2021.

In the South Island the number of households will increase by 63,000 (17 per cent), from 370,000 to 433,000, over the same period.

Five areas are projected to experience increases of over 50 per cent: Queenstown-Lakes District (up 74 per cent), Rodney District (up 59 per cent), Selwyn District (up 57 per cent), Tauranga City (up 54 per cent), and Western Bay of Plenty District (up 51 per cent).

Invercargill City and Southland District, which are both projected to have fewer households in 2021 than in 2001, will experience an increase in households between 2001 and 2011 before declining.

The four cities in Auckland Region are projected to experience the greatest numerical growth in households between 2001 and 2021.

Auckland City is projected to increase by 61,000, from 141,000 to 202,000; Manukau City by 44,000, from 90,000 to 133,000; North Shore City by 29,000, from 71,000 to 99,000; and Waitakere City by 28,000, from 60,000 to 87,000.

Together, these cities account for 43 per cent of the projected national growth in households.

In 2001, there were 1.02 million family households in New Zealand. This number is projected to increase by 215,000 (21 per cent) to reach 1.23 million in 2021.

Households containing more than one person, but not containing a family are projected to increase nationally from about 88,000 in 2001 to 102,000 in 2021. Some 82 per cent of this growth is projected to be in the 2001-2011 period, mainly associated with the inflow of students from overseas.

The largest growth in other multiperson households is projected to be in Auckland City (up 4,200 between 2001 and 2021), Manukau City (up 1,900), Waitakere City (up 1,300), North Shore City (up 1,000), Hamilton City (up 1,000), Tauranga City (up 800), Rodney District (up 700), Christchurch City (up 700) and Wellington City (up 600). The number of other multiperson households is likely to remain stable in most other territorial authorities.

The family household is by far the most common household type, accounting for 71 per cent of all New Zealand households in 2001. However, its share of all households nationally is projected to decline to 68 per cent by 2021. A decline in share is projected for all territorial authorities, except Auckland City where the family household share will remain stable.

In contrast, one-person households will account for a greater share of households in all territorial authorities in 2021 compared with 2001. Buller (39 per cent), Westland (37 per cent) and Mackenzie (35 per cent) districts are projected to have the highest shares of one-person households in 2021.

Six regions are projected to have fewer people in 2021 than in 2001. However, five of these regions - Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, Manawatu-Wanganui, West Coast - are projected to experience an increase in the number of households.

Southland is the only region projected to have less population (down 15 per cent) and fewer households (down 3 per cent) in 2021 compared with 2001, although the number of households is projected to remain stable from 2001 to 2011, before declining.