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MIGRANTS are continuing to help drive New Zealand's economy. It is considered to be a main driver of the country's domestic demand and has helped the current retail sales boom as well as pushing house prices higher.
Falling population growth is expected to ease pressure on the booming housing market and could explain a "softening" of the rental market, one economist said.
But net annual migration has dropped from a peak of 42,500 in May to 40,400 for the September year although it remains nine per cent higher than the same time last year.
Migration is a key driver of domestic demand and has been partly responsible for strong retail sales and the housing boom.
ASB Bank economist Kate Skinner said migration would still continue to underpin strong gross domestic product. growth in the medium term.
Rising tourism numbers and the resulting increase in export receipts would also keep the economy bubbling along. Visitor numbers rose 9 per cent to 148,400 in September, Statistics New Zealand said.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Ulf Schoefisch said that while the monthly number of immigrants would slow only gradually in the next year, the forecast downturn in migration would he driven mainly by Kiwis taking advantage of improving global job prospects.
This was despite recent changes in immigration policy and falling foreign student numbers - said to have dropped about 30 per cent.
Mrs Skinner agreed, saying changes to immigration rules would not have a marked effect on permanent arrivals, but -transitory factors such as Sars exacerbated the already low number of permanent and long-term departures by New Zealanders.
Mrs Skinner suggested more Kiwis could have left permanently than indicated in the data, which recorded people as leaving "long term" only if they had been out of the country for more than a year.