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Home > Our Publications > New Zealand Outlook > 2008 > May

Property market on the edge

Negative growth is a possibility

THE New Zealand residential property market reached a 'tipping point' in February with the percentage annual growth rate on the verge of moving into negative figures, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (Inc).
The national median price eased back from NZ$340,000 in January to NZ$337,500 in February, leaving it just 0.74 per cent ahead of the February 2007 median of NZ$335,000.
"Any further weakening of prices in March will see the market move into a negative percentage which has huge ramifications" the National President of the Institute Mr Murray Cleland said.
"If prices tip into reverse for the balance of this year that will have huge economic and political implications.
"Treasury has already begun to talk about the impact of falling property prices while at the same time the Reserve Bank is talking about maintaining the current 8.25 per cent Official Cash Rate until 2009.
"It might be testimony to the independence of the Central Bank, but for a government to be going into an election year with potentially falling property prices and rising mortgage interest rates, is not a good look".
Mr Cleland said the wisdom of the Reserve Bank having increased the OCR four times in a row last year, having left it unchanged for the 12 months prior, had to be called into question.
"The overwhelming goal of controlling inflation is recognised, but the cost to the average New Zealander during 2008 could be considerable with reduced household spending as mortgage costs squeeze disposable incomes, while falling prices will leave some with negative equity and the prospect of unhappy conversations with their bank".
Mr Cleland said the market was yet to conclusively prove that it had gone into retreat and the one heartening aspect of the February figures was the rise in sales from 5,186 in January to 6,356, which given the fact that February is another truncated month, isn't too bad an effort although still a long way behind the February 2007 sales of 9,357.
While the national median was down, the pattern around the 12 real estate regions was unclear, with six rises and six falls.
Mr Cleland said that a number of the regional price movements didn't follow a clear trend and had to be assumed to be partly a result of relatively low sales levels affecting median prices.
Northland's median was down from NZ$328,000 to NZ$284,000 while the Auckland region was down from NZ$432,750 in January to NZ$427,000.
Mr Cleland said within the Auckland region figures, both the North Shore and the Auckland City medians rose, North Shore up from NZ$495,000 to NZ$525,000 which is ahead of the February 2007 median of NZ$503,500, while the Auckland City median was up from NZ$433,000 in January to NZ$439,500 in February, however this latest figure was down on the February 2007 figure of NZ$462,000.
Lower priced apartment sales in February were a likely influence, Mr Cleland said.
Further South, the Waikato Bay of Plenty median was up from NZ$320,000 to NZ$333,000, helped by Hamilton City up from NZ$325,000 to NZ$360,000, Mount Maunganui and Papamoa jumping from NZ$410,500 to NZ$470,000 and Tauranga up from NZ$341,500 to NZ$354,000.
The Hawke's Bay median was down from NZ$280,000 to NZ$270,000 and although Napier City was up from NZ$292,500 to NZ$311,250, Hastings was down from NZ$285,000 to NZ$260,000.
"As can be seen the trends are not consistent, with no real rhyme nor reason, and the market appears to be moving as much sideways as down, so we will need to see the March and probably April figures to get a clearer feel for the trend for 2008", Mr Cleland said.
The Manawatu and Wanganui regions median was back from NZ$230,000 to NZ$225,000 but Taranaki managed a small increase from NZ$263,000 to NZ$265,000.
The Wellington median was seemingly quite strong, up from NZ$366,750 in January to NZ$375,800, as was Nelson and Marlborough regions up from NZ$340,000 in January to NZ$351,750.
Canterbury and Westland regions median was up from NZ$310,000 to NZ$320,000, helped by an increase in the Christchurch City median from NZ$325,500 to NZ$330,000.
Central Otago Lakes region demonstrated its usual volatility rising from NZ$476,500 to NZ$515,000 affirming its position as the most expensive place to buy in the country, however sales were down and both Central Otago and Queenstown medians were down.
Otago eased a little from NZ$235,000 in January to NZ$231,500 in February while Southland dropped back from NZ$225,000 in January to NZ$201,000 in February.
The year on year percentage figures show Southland still comfortably ahead at 21.81 per cent followed by Central Otago Lakes up 16.84 per cent with Nelson Marlborough third up 13.46 per cent.
The other regions have little to celebrate over the last year with three regions showing negative percentages, Northland down 8.38 per cent, Auckland down 0.69 per cent and Hawkes Bay down 0.73 per cent.